For some readers out there, this may seem like the “No-Duh” headline of the year.
But for those of you who prefer to see data and proof before jumping headlong into an opinion, the research has been done.
Michigan’s Capitol Press Corps leans Democratic, according to an analysis compiled by Practical Political Data’s Mark Grebner.
Given the names of 33 journalists whose job it is to report or edit the political news that’s coming out of Lansing and state government, Grebner’s data showed that seven lean Republican, four are solidly in the middle and 12 lean Democratic and 10 are projected to be solid Democrats.
No reliable voting information could be found on four other Capitol reporters.
Grebner’s off-the-cuff analysis of this information?
“I’m surprised there’s that many Republicans, really,” he said.
The information Grebner compiled is based on a complicated formula that he’s tested and validated numerous times, he said.
It’s data that’s proven reliable enough over the years to have campaigns of all stripes banging down his door for it.
He and his crew have basically harvested the voting data of every Michigan resident for years. How often do you vote? Which presidential primary do you participate in? Where do you live? Which petitions have you signed?
There are countless points of data Grebner uses that he’s found to be predictors of how someone is likely to vote when push comes to shove. While he could get his hands on consumer data, Grebner said he doesn’t use it because it’s not a good predictor of a person’s voting habits.
All of the data he’s found to have value is thrown into a pot. Out spits a number 1-99. A “1” is a hard-core Republican. A “99” is a hard-core Democrat. If you’ve ever voted in a Michigan election, you probably have a number. If you’ve voted in a few, you definitely have a number.
What he found about the Michigan Capitol Press Corp is this:
• They have an average score of 72.1, which has them leaning Democratic more likely than not. If the reporters from Michigan Advance are taken out of the equation, the number moves to 70.03
• Not a single reporter he tracked voted in the Republican presidential primary in 2020. That’s the one in which President Donald Trump ran against some low-visibility candidate. In fact, some reporters asked for a non-partisan ballot. They wanted to vote in some local issues but didn’t want to dive into the GOP or Democratic primary, which Joe Biden was wrapping up at that point.
• This may date the press corps, but only two of the 33 voted in the 1992 partisan primary and neither were old enough to be in the Capitol Press Corps at that time.
• All but one of the 33 voted in the 2022 general election. All but three of the 33 voted in the 2020 general election.
Keep in mind the Capitol Press Corps is mostly college-educated, young professionals. Even if they’re married, few have children, which puts them in a demographic that leans Democratic.
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