A gubernatorial upset? Three bold predictions for the primary election

Abdul El-Sayed
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With Michigan’s primary election coming up on Tuesday (polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.), here are three bold predictions.

But first, a couple notes.

Livingston County’s hottest primary race is for 44th Circuit Court judge, but I won’t be making any predictions in that race. One of the candidates, Dennis Brewer, is a very good friend of mine and I’m working on his campaign, so I’m staying away from that one.

Second, I want these to be BOLD predictions, so I’m staying away from all the gimmes. Such as: Mike Bishop (U.S. House) and Lana Theis (State Senate) are both going to win their primary races easily, so I’m not shooting those fish in a barrel.

So, here we go. Here are three BOLD predictions as to what’s going to happen on Tuesday. What makes them BOLD is that none of the pollsters are predicting these outcomes, so when they actually come true, you’re going to be able to say that you heard it here first.

Here they are:

Abdul El-Sayed is going to almost beat Gretchen Whitmer

There are three candidates vying for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The establishment pick is Gretchen Whitmer, while the Bernie Sanders crowd’s pick is Abdul El-Sayed. Then you have Shri Thanedar, who (and this is a BONUS bold pick) is going to finish a distant third, waaaaay behind the other two.

Whitmer is way out in front of most polls, but doesn’t have anywhere close to the enthusiastic support that El-Sayed does from the Berniecrats. His supporters are way more engaged, so my prediction is that El-Sayed is going to come within five points of beating Whitmer. She’s probably still going to win, but it’s going to be a lot closer than people think, and it won’t be a stunner if El-Sayed actually wins.

Patrick Colbeck is going to finish second in the GOP race for governor

There’s little doubt that Bill Schuette is going to win the Republican gubernatorial primary, but the big story here is going to be that Patrick Colbeck will finish ahead of Brian Calley in second place.

I’ve been all over the state this summer, and Colbeck’s signs are everywhere. Calley has Gov. Rick Snyder’s support and all the big newspaper endorsements, but he doesn’t have the fired-up base that Colbeck has. The polls all say that Calley will finish second, but my BOLD prediction is that Colbeck will.

Sandy Pensler will get less than 30 percent of the primary vote

John James and Sandy Pensler are slugging it out in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, and it was a pretty even race before President Trump endorsed James. Now he’s about 15 points up in the polls.

My BOLD prediction is that he’ll win the race by at least 40 points.

About Buddy Moorehouse 169 Articles
Longtime Livingston County journalist Buddy Moorehouse is director of communications at the Michigan Association of Public School Academies.

4 Comments

  1. Turnout is critical. It’s a rainy day and history indicates wet dampens participation.

  2. What about city of Brighton Headlee Over Ride?
    I say a resounding NO… 83% of population is retired or getting close to retirement..

What do you think?