In a midterm election projected to be the most expensive in U.S. history, Michigan is expected to see over $936 million spent on political advertising in the 14 remaining months of the 2026 cycle, a new report from AdImpact estimates.
The report projects over $10.8 billion will be spent on political ads nationwide over the entirety of the cycle and predicts California will be the highest-spending state at $1.1 billion. Michigan is forecasted to be next in line, followed Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.
A few factors contribute to Michigan’s position in the national hierarchy – open gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races in the same cycle for the first time in state history, a Legislature up for grabs and at least two uber-competitive U.S. House races – and spending could intensify early next year once ballot eligibility is determined for several buzzy petition initiatives that would have interest groups and PACs scrambling to spend to support or defeat them come November.
U.S. Senate spending is expected to make up $2.8 billion of that $10.8 billion total, with five battleground states likely to have contests exceeding $500 million. Michigan is joined in that group by Georgia, Maine, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The race to replace U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, will likely rocket to the top of national spending lists by this time next year, based on spending in last year’s race to replace former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow. AdImpact’s data from that race shows over $220 million spent just on the race between now-U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, and Mike Rogers, who is running again this cycle.
Spending in state legislatures and down ballot races will make up more than 36% of the nationwide total, AdImpact estimates at around $3.9 billion. Michigan is once again predicted to clock in as the second-highest spending state in the union in down ballot races, with $56.9 million expected to be spent on ads for contests in the Legislature, ballot proposals and other races.
With majorities in both chambers of the Legislature within striking distance for either party, competitive state House and Senate districts will likely see heavy spending. Michiganders can also look back to the 2022 midterm for a reminder of the advertising blitz that comes with having controversial ballot proposals: If petitioners for initiatives regarding proof of citizenship for voter registration, ranked choice voting or different tax policy changes succeed at getting a place on the ballot, the state is sure to see a similarly intense ad landscape this time around.
The category where Michigan is projected to easily take the cake in ad spending nationwide is gubernatorial contests: of the $1.9 billion in gubernatorial race spending AdImpact predicts, Michigan is forecasted to represent over $152 million. Toss-up races in similar states like Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada are also projected to exceed $100 million in ad spending, a significant increase from the $80 million spent on the average toss-up state in 2022, the last comparable cycle.
– By Lily Guiney
