GOP at Mackinac: John James loses straw poll, signalling messy gubernatorial race to come

September 22, 2025
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U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Twp.) at a campaign event for JD Vance in Shelby Twp. on Aug. 7, 2024. | Lucy Valeski

By Ben Solis, Michigan Advance

U.S. Rep. John James’ bid for governor in 2026, which has positioned itself as the frontrunner in the race, was knocked down a peg over the weekend after the campaign came in fourth among declared gubernatorial contenders in a Michigan Republican Party poll.

Members of the Michigan’s GOP, from leaders to delegates and activists, gathered this past weekend on Mackinac Island for a biannual conference that allows candidates for governor and other offices to make a splash. The affair typically includes speakers and seminars, this year featuring U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Trump acolyte Ric Grenell, who serves as president of the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C.

The event also featured a gubernatorial forum with declared candidates and those on the cusp of potentially joining the race – of which James was absent, according to The Detroit News.

The Michigan Information & Research Service Inc., known as MIRS, reported that James, of Shelby Township, and his campaign were also missing from a cavalcade of candidates and their supporters greeting Republicans as they made their way to the island.

Making matters potentially worse was the outcome of the straw poll, organized by conservative news outlet The Midwesterner. The poll sampled nearly 500 registered attendees at the event.

Results of the poll shared on social media showed Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township on top of the GOP gubernatorial primary field with 29% of votes cast. Former Michigan Speaker of the House Tom Leonard came in second with 23.5%; former Attorney General Mike Cox with 18.5%; and James in fourth with just 14% of votes cast.

Pastor Ralph Rebandt, who recently announced his candidacy and made a play for governor in 2022, came in fifth place with 5% in the poll, while activist Karla Wagner came in sixth place with just under 5%.

Candidate Anthony Hudson garnered just 0.8%, while other names floated by attendees for the poll got a collective 4.4%.

James remained positive about his race and his standing as the largest name among primary contenders, Gongwer News Service reported, but a Washington Examiner piece published over the weekend spelled potential consternation over James’ candidacy and its potential to upend the GOP’s stronghold in Congress.

Rep. John James joins race for Michigan governor, says state lacks “strong, competent leadership.”

U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain of Bruce Township told the latter conservative outlet it was “100% not ideal” that James was leaving behind his Michigan 10th Congressional District seat in pursuit of the governor’s office. McClain said the situation makes it difficult for the GOP to hold its two-seat majority in 2026. McClain later doubled down by saying that James was “absolutely” jeopardizing Republican control of his seat by running for governor.

That said, McClain was upbeat about the candidates that could come forward soon to declare in that race. Robert Llgjuraj is the only Republican who has officially thrown his hat in the ring.

An open seat would cost more money to defend and would require the GOP to spend that money on a new face, whereas it would be easier if James remained in the race, McClain added.

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jon King for questions: info@michiganadvance.com.

Michigan Advance

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: info@michiganadvance.com.

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