Former President Donald Trump (47%) is leading incumbent President Joe Biden (44%) by 2 points, but it’s within the margin of error, according to a March 15-16 Mitchell Research & Communications poll of 627 Michigan voters conducted for MIRS News this week (+/- 3 margin of error).
Trump (50%) is leading Biden (42%) in a March 13-18 survey of 1,097 Michigan voters (+/- 3.6 margin of error) conducted for CNN.
Trump (50%) and Biden (50%) are tied in a March 14-18 survey of 1,000 Michigan voters (+/- 3 margin of error) conducted for The Hill by Emerson College.
In the calendar year 2024, MIRS is aware of eight separate and independent polls of the presidential race in Michigan. Trump is leading outside the margin of error in four, leading inside the margin of error in two and tied in one. Biden is leading in only one, the one conducted by Target Insyght for MIRS.
The Trump lead is coming regardless of whether some or all of the third-party or independent candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy, are factored into the equation.
Kennedy got 6% in the Mitchell poll, 18% in the CNN poll and 5% in the Emerson College poll. In all three surveys, Trump still has a lead of between 6% and 2% with the independent candidates in the mix.
According to Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research & Communications, the key for Biden is locking down his base. It’s not there, yet.
“Trump is doing a much better job of solidifying his base, where he’s getting 90% of the Republican base with only 2% going to Biden,” Mitchell said. “Biden, on the other hand, is only getting 84% of his base and, more importantly, is faced with the embarrassing situation of giving away 12% of his vote to former President Trump.”
In the CNN poll, Trump was up 92-4% among Republicans and Biden was up 88-9% among Democrats. It’s similar, but not as stark as what Mitchell found.
The CNN poll confirms numbers from the Mitchell poll released Thursday that Republicans (87%) are more motivated to vote than Democrats (78%) or moderates (73%).
On the issues, Mitchell found that “the border” was the biggest issue overall at 35%, followed by the economy (24%), foreign affairs (8%), climate issues (8%), abortion (7%), crime (2%), other (9%) and not sure (3%).
Among Republicans, 58% said the border and 33% said the economy. Nothing else registered over 2%.
Among Democrats, 20% said the economy. Another 16% a piece said foreign affairs, climate and “other.” The border (11%), abortion (10%) and not sure (4%) were after that. Crime was at 0%.
Independents had the border (38%) as the most important issue, followed by the economy (16%), climate (10%), abortion (9%), crime (7%), other (7%), foreign affairs (6%) and not sure (4%).
CNN had the economy at 39%, “protecting democracy” at 23%, immigration at 15%, abortion and reproductive rights at 12 percent, foreign policy at 3 percent, climate change at 3 percent.
Emerson also had the economy as the top issue for Michigan voters at 38%, followed by immigration (11%), threats to democracy (10%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (9%), education (7%), and abortion access (6%).
Mitchell also found that roughly as many Democrats believe Trump is as mentally unfit to serve as Republicans believe Biden is mentally unfit to serve. Among independents, 38% believe Biden is mentally unfit and 42% believe Trump is unfit.
More voters (56%) said they didn’t feel as if they were better off today than they were three years ago than those who said they are better off today than they were three years ago (41%).
