By Ben Solis, Michigan Advance
A survey of likely Michigan voters released Tuesday shows the state’s Democrats are circling the wagons around Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, while Republicans are likely to pull for U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township in the 2026 primary election.
The poll, conducted by Lansing-based Mitchell Research and sponsored by capitol news outlet Michigan Information & Research Service, Inc., or MIRS, also shows that former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake has solid footing in hypothetical matchups against his Democratic rivals in the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. Only Democratic U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens of Birmingham comes close enough to making the contest competitive, the Mitchell Research poll shows.
The survey tapped 616 November general election voters, 261 likely Democratic primary voters and 255 likely Republican primary voters between Nov. 18 and Nov. 25. About a third of the responses were collected online.
The general election questionnaire had a margin of error of 3.7%, but the primary voter section had a margin of error upward toward 6%. Still, Mitchell Research said it had a 95% level of confidence in its data.
U.S. Senate race polling shows opportunity for Rogers, Stevens
Among likely general election voters surveyed, the poll shows Rogers as potentially doing well against each of his Democratic rivals in the race.
Rogers netted 41% of interest from those surveyed against progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who ran for governor in 2018, who polled at 38% At least 22% said they weren’t sure who they were voting for in that matchup.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak was in the same position as El-Sayed, polling just 38% in a hypothetical matchup with Rogers among those surveyed. Of note, Rogers in that matchup polled higher at 44% with 19% saying they weren’t sure yet on who they’d vote for in that scenario.
Stevens comes the closest to making the matchup competitive in the Mitchell Research poll. The congresswoman was polling at 40% among those surveyed to Rogers’ 42%, with 18% saying they were still undecided if that matchup was on the November ballot.
Rogers spokesperson Alyssa Brouillet, in a statement, said that while the Republican’s “socialist opponents battle it out in their bloody primary, Mike Rogers is winning.”
“Michiganders are sick and tired of Democrats in this state killing our jobs, failing our schools, turning a blind eye to violent crime, and trying to shoot our taxes through the roof – and the polls reflect it,” Brouillet said. “Mike Rogers will right the ship and get Michigan working again.”
Joetta Appiah, spokesperson for the Stevens campaign, viewed the data as a win.
“Once again, polling shows Haley Stevens is leading the primary and is the strongest Democratic candidate to beat Mike Rogers,” Appiah said in a statement. “Haley’s focus on lowering costs and strengthening Michigan’s manufacturing economy is how she’s building the coalition to win the primary and carry that momentum into the general election to keep Mike Rogers out of the Senate.”
For El-Sayed’s campaign, the poll shows them as one of only two candidates within the margin of error to beat Rogers.
“Even then, we learned in 2024 what happens when Democrats double down on candidates who defend Israel’s genocide in a state like Michigan: it alienates communities we need to build a winning coalition,” Roxie Richner, El-Sayed’s campaign spokesperson, told Michigan Advance. “Abdul is a formidable general election candidate because he energizes voters where his opponents will struggle to even turn them out. We’re continuing to build a movement of Michiganders who want money out of politics, money in their pockets, and Medicare for All — and we look forward to winning in both August and November.”
Hannah Lindow, spokesperson for McMorrow’s campaign, said the poll confirms what the campaign already says it knows about the race.
“Mallory has the momentum in this race,” Lindow said. “While she continues to close the gap and win with voters who know all three candidates, others in this race have lost ground or remained stagnant.”
Gubernatorial race shows Benson, James in pole positions going into 2026
James and Benson were the ones to top the likely nominee list in the survey.
The Republican with arguably the most name recognition in the race, James, was polling well at 48%, well ahead of his competitors in the race. The survey showed that former Attorney General Mike Cox took 11% of interest from likely primary voters. Meanwhile, 5% of likely Republican primary voters surveyed said they would be voting for former Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard, 2% said they would be supporting state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township, and 1% were likely to cast a ballot for former pastor Ralph Rebandt, who previously ran for governor in 2022. At least 33% of likely voters said they were still undecided.
Benson was in the same position on the Democratic side of the race as James, polling among likely primary voters at 48%. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist was polling at 12% in the survey and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson was polling at 5%
In a race between James and Benson, the general election cohort survey showed the Republican candidate at 37%, the Democratic candidate at 31%, and independent candidate and outgoing Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan at 18%.
Benson, however, leads among those same likely general election voters in a matchup against Cox (the Democratic candidate polled at 33% to the GOP candidate’s 32%) and against Nesbitt (Benson netted interest at 32% of those surveyed to the senator’s 27%) In both scenarios, Duggan still polled third in terms of interest, but slightly higher in the hypothetical matchup between Benson and Nesbitt.
“John James, who lost two US Senate races before being elected and re-elected to Congress in 2022/24, and Mike Cox who lost a race for governor in 2010, are now the leading GOP candidates for governor next year,” said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications. “However, both Aric Nesbitt and Tom Leonard are raising money and intend to be very competitive. It’s too early to count out anyone, although James is clearly in the driver’s seat.”
Hannah Osantowske, spokesperson for James’ campaign, said the poll shows that the congressman is the Republican leader who primary voters are beginning to rally around as their pick for governor.
“Michigan families are rejecting corrupt, career politicians and are ready to put a combat veteran Apache pilot and businessman who’s never left a mission unfinished in the governor’s office,” Osantowske said. “With duty and direction, John will deliver reliable energy, safe communities, affordable homes, good-paying jobs, and skills training from middle school to mid-career so every Michigander can thrive.
Although the emphasis for voters surveyed in the poll was on Benson and James, Duggan was shown to be getting around 20% of interest from likely voters in each of the three hypothetical matchups.
Duggan appeared to be doing better with Democrats than Republicans, which continues to be an interesting plot point in the race given the way he burned Democrats to run as a nonpartisan candidate and continues to get funding support from Republican donors.
If he had announced his candidacy as a Democrat, Mitchell Research shows that he does better with Democrats (at 15%) than Republicans (11%) against someone like Cox, and 6% better in both categories against James.
Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jon King for questions: info@michiganadvance.com.
