When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, I have no idea who’s going to win the Electoral College, the popular vote or Michigan, but I do know this: Donald Trump is going to win Livingston County and he’s going to win it big.
I’m not exactly going out on a limb with that one. That’s like predicting that your head is going to get wet if someone dumps a bucket of water on it.
See, in the last hundred-plus years, Livingston County has only ever voted for a Democrat once in a presidential election. That was in 1964, when Republican Barry Goldwater was seen by pretty much everyone as being something of a nut and didn’t stand a chance even in a staunchly Republican county like this, so Lyndon Johnson trounced him.
Before and since, though, Livingston County has gone for the Republican every single time. And it’s about to do so again. Donald Trump is going to win here and he’s going to win big.
The question is, how big?
Which brings us to the topic of today’s discussion: When it comes to politics, are we still ruby red, or are we becoming a bit more purple? (We definitely aren’t blue.)
There are signs leaning both ways.
If you were to look at a map of Livingston County following any recent election, you’d see that the northern and western townships are all about as red as you can get, maybe 65-35 when it comes to the Republican/Democratic split. The two cities, Brighton and Howell, are closer to 50-50, with Brighton even leaning a little bit to the Dems.
Likewise Hamburg and Green Oak townships in the southeast part of the county. They’re pretty much 50-50.
So when you add it all up, with no major pockets of overwhelming Democratic support, the county as a whole still leans very much to the right.
Where it gets interesting is when you look at the last four major elections – two presidential and two gubernatorial. This is how Livingston County voted in each election for the major candidates:
2016 – Presidential
Republican Donald Trump – 61.68%
Democrat Hillary Clinton – 32.29%
2018 – Gubernatorial
Republican Bill Schuette – 56.58%
Democrat Gretchen Whitmer – 39.70%
2020 – Presidential
Republican Donald Trump – 60.52%
Democrat Joe Biden – 37.91%
2022 – Gubernatorial
Republican Tudor Dixon – 55.58%
Democrat Gretchen Whitmer – 42.75%
So you can look at those numbers a lot of ways, but there’s no escaping the fact that we’re still very, very Republican. In 2022, the Republicans had maybe the weakest candidate they’ve ever had in a major election, Tudor Dixon, and she still beat Gretchen Whitmer by 13 points here.
And in his last two elections, Trump has done extremely well here. He beat Hillary Clinton by 29 points and Joe Biden by 23 points.
Ah, you say! But the percentages are coming down! The Republican won by 29 points in 2016 and by only 13 points in 2022. Proof positive that we’re becoming more purple!
Well, maybe. And that’s the argument that my Democratic friends make when they try to claim that their side is starting to make major inroads here.
And that’s why I say now that the 2024 election will truly be a bellwether in terms of which direction we’re heading. We’re about to learn a whole heck of a lot.
I’m willing to bet a dollar that Donald Trump will win Livingston County by more than the 13 points that Tudor Dixon won it in 2022, and by less than the 29 points that he won it in 2016. It’ll be fascinating to see if he’s closer to 13 or closer to 29.
What will also be interesting to see is if the Dems can hang on to the precincts they won in 2022 in the southeast part of the county – Brighton, Hamburg and Green Oak. Trump will still dominate in the northern and western townships, but if Kamala Harris can hang on to a few precincts in the Brighton area, that’ll make the case that maybe the county as a whole isn’t becoming more purple, but the southeast quadrant is.
And if Harris doesn’t hang on to the territories that Whitmer won in 2022? That’ll tell us a lot, too. The Republicans will smile and say, “See? We’re just as red as we ever were.”
The voters will have their say in just a few weeks. And it’ll be fascinating to see how this all comes out.
