Michigan Republicans have rallied around a former member of Congress as their expected choice for U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s primary, with the party hopeful to win a seat in the state for the first time in 30 years this fall.
Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake is the frontrunner in a three-way GOP primary which also features former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash of Cascade Township and Sherry O’Donnell of Stevensville.
The three candidates are vying to take on the winner of the Democratic primary featuring U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly, their expected frontrunner, and actor and Detroit businessman Hill Harper.
U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) is retiring, setting up a high-stakes battle for the open seat that will be critically important for control of the chamber after this fall.
Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994, but with an increasingly divided electorate and narrowing margins in recent Michigan U.S. Senate races, the GOP sees a significant opportunity.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee recruited Rogers to avoid a crowded and contentious primary. At one point, the GOP primary had a dozen candidates, but over time some dropped out while others did not submit enough petition signatures to appear on the ballot.
There has been infighting in the GOP field, with Rogers as the primary target of attacks. For a time this spring, there was an expensive advertising campaign by a former opponent. That opponent has since dropped out and endorsed Rogers.
The GOP hopes to come away from the primary united ahead of a hugely expensive and competitive general election contest.
Rogers entered the race in September 2023. In a video announcing his candidacy, Rogers said: “America is at risk” and that policies being pursued by President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats is setting the country in the wrong direction (See Gongwer Michigan Report, September 6, 2023).
“I’d thought I’d put politics behind me. But like you, I know something’s broken,” Rogers said in his campaign announcement. “Politics has gotten so small and so petty. We’re failing to address big problems.”
Rogers has often touted his U.S. Army and Federal Bureau of Investigation experience, as well as his time after the September 11, 2001, attacks as chair of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee.
In making his case to voters, he has framed himself as the most experienced candidate ready to tackle the issues facing the country. Rogers served in the state Senate from 1995-2001 and in the U.S. House from 2001-15.
The Rogers campaign scheduled an interview with Gongwer News Service for this story, but it was canceled minutes before taking place. Attempts to reschedule an interview prior to publication were unsuccessful. A request sent to the Amash campaign for an interview for this story was not returned.
In May 2017, Rogers was among several officials interviewed by then-President Donald Trump’s administration for the role of FBI director after the president fired James Comey over the agency’s investigation of whether Trump’s presidential campaign had any ties to Russian election interference.
Rogers, following the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, was at times critical of Trump. Since entering the race, Rogers has shifted to a strongly pro-Trump stance.
Like other Republicans, Rogers has also leaned hard into the debate over the nation’s border security, laying the blame on a spike in illegal crossings at the southern border on Biden and the Democrats.
Rogers has also echoed other Republicans with tough rhetoric regarding China, and has taken aim at the proposed Gotion electric vehicle battery plant to be built in Michigan and the incentives the state approved for the company.
“I think this is a serious mistake,” Rogers said a day after entering the race. “We’ve given the adversary money to put them in a better position to attack us. … There is no company in China that isn’t a part of the Chinese government.” (See Gongwer Michigan Report, September 7, 2023)
Rogers, like other candidates during the Trump era, has been forced to walk a tightrope in which he both displays his support of the party’s undisputed leader and presents his record in a way to attract moderate and independent voters.
He quickly began to consolidate support and endorsements from conservative organizations, law enforcement groups and elected officials past and present after entering the race.
The critical and most coveted GOP endorsement, of course, was that of Trump, which came in March (See Gongwer Michigan Report, March 11, 2024).
“Thank you, Mr. President! Excited to get to work with you and Get America and Michigan Back on Track!” Rogers said on X, formerly Twitter, in response to the endorsement.
He has also obtained endorsements from former primary opponents, including former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and Grosse Pointe business executive Sandy Pensler.
Pensler, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary, put more than $5 million of his personal fortune into his campaign (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 6, 2024).
It was Pensler who was most vocally critical of Rogers. In May, he launched attack ads against Rogers, targeting him for his work in Congress in response to the deadly Benghazi terrorist attack in 2012 (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 6, 2024).
Rogers weathered the storm, with his campaign calling the allegations nonsense. And when Trump rallied in Michigan after the Republican National Convention last month, Pensler announced his support for Rogers and withdrew from the primary (See Gongwer Michigan Report, July 22, 2024).
Democrats, seeing Rogers as the most significant threat to holding the U.S. Senate seat, targeted him and multiple other GOP candidates in May with allegations of potentially fraudulent petition signatures.
However, the complaints against Rogers and the others came two weeks after the deadline for petition signature challenges (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 17, 2024). Rogers was granted ballot access by the Board of State Canvassers in late May.
Seeing the potential for the party’s first U.S. Senate win in Michigan since 1994, conservative groups are planning to spend huge sums backing Rogers.
The nonprofit group One Nation, which is aligned with U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), has scheduled advertising buys in Michigan totaling $9.4 million, set to begin this month (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 13, 2024).
A Super PAC, the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, has already spent millions boosting Rogers during the primary. It has raised more than $5.2 million so far, and most of it has been spent on advertising supporting Rogers.
Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Rogers on Thursday. The group also lined up $122,433 in advertising in support of Rogers beginning the day after the primary and running through the end of August, according to AdImpact.
Rogers has emerged as a strong fundraiser for his party, raising $824,000 in less than a month based on his earliest quarterly campaign finance report in 2023. Since then, he has raised $1 million or more in each quarter. Amash raised a little more than $184,000 in the most recent quarter, down from $478,000 in his first quarter in the race.
When he entered the race in February, Amash said there was a need for a “principled, consistent constitutional conservative” to fill the open seat.
“What we need is not a rubber stamp for either party, but an independent-minded senator prepared to challenge anyone and everyone on the people’s behalf – someone focused not on extending federal power so Republicans or Democrats in Washington can achieve their political ends, but on ensuring that Americans have the personal and economic freedom to pursue their own ends,” Amash said in a statement when he entered the race (See Gongwer Michigan Report, February 29, 2024).
Amash is seeking not just a return to Congress but to the Republican Party. He left the party in a July 4, 2019, Washington Post op-ed to become an independent. He later joined the Libertarian Party in 2020 before opting not to run for reelection that year.
He also voted for the impeachment of Trump in 2019, setting up in the current primary as an uphill battle to win over primary voters in a party where a huge majority of its members are supporters of the former president.
He served one term in the Michigan House from 2009-10 before he was elected to Congress in 2010. He served five terms before opting not to run again.
O’Donnell ran an unsuccessful primary campaign against U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) in 2022. Last year she became Michigan State Chair for U.S. Term Limits. In 2011, she founded the Herbie Medical Clinic.
Republicans who are following the race believe Rogers will win big on Tuesday, creating an opportunity for the party in the fall.
“Mike Rogers is going to be the nominee, it just depends on what the margin is,” Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township) said of the primary.
He said Rogers has run a strong campaign and has a solid background in law enforcement, national security and in Congress to run on.
“It’s a great Michigan story to tell,” Nesbitt said. “We have a Class A candidate with Mike Rogers.”
Nesbitt contrasted Rogers’ background in law enforcement and national security with what he called Slotkin’s “so-called national security experience,” and what he called a left-wing voting record in Congress along party lines.
“She’s voted with the most progressive wing of the Democrats with the most critical votes out there,” Nesbitt said.
The Trump endorsement was a solid boost for Rogers, Nesbitt said, adding that the Republicans have been doing well in coming together ahead of the general election.
“What’s great is that the one that spent the most in opposition … didn’t even take until the primary to get on board,” Nesbitt said of Pensler’s withdrawal from the race and backing of Rogers.
Nesbitt was also bullish on the Republicans’ chance in November of making gains in the U.S. Senate. He said outside of West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio “Michigan’s the next” seat in play for a GOP pickup.
Andrea Bitely, founder of Bitely Communications had no doubt Rogers would win the GOP primary handily.
“At this point, I’m thinking he’s 70-30,” Bitely said of his margin of victory.
Although she respects Amash, Bitely said she does not see him being much of a threat to Rogers, and his place as frontrunner solidified with the endorsement of Trump.
“The Trump endorsement was pretty strong,” Bitely said.
Rogers has been successful, she said, because he has walked the fine line between supporting Trump and maintaining his connection to his past congressional record as somewhat of a moderate.
“Mike Rogers has to be able to straddle the line between his moderate voting record when he was in Congress … and where the party is now,” Bitely said.
Rogers will need to remain disciplined and consistent in his policy statements while on the campaign trail, Bitely added.
“He and Elissa Slotkin are going to have a duel to the bitter end,” Bitely said.
– By Nick Smith
