Not too long ago, Forrester released a report, “Tech Changes to Expect in Next 3 Years,” discussed on CIO.com. It makes for an interesting piece. No surprise regarding how computing (e.g. the Cloud) is becoming increasingly centralized again and analytics increasingly important.
And then there’s this little piece:
“The App Internet, if it plays out, would mark the end of the website as we know it and the dawn of the mobile app era, states the Forrester report. It’s also certain to change how developers and enterprises create apps and manage the devices that run them.”
The ‘end of the website…(in the next 3 years)’ It wouldn’t be an analyst piece, if they didn’t try to hyper-imagine ultimate outcomes.
Apps may (likely, in my view) become a dominant form of mobile interaction with the internet. However, declaring an ‘App Internet’ falls dangerously close to the ‘everyone is doing it’ type of zealous comment. For one, it ignores the immobile (desktop/laptop bound) existence altogether.
Here are three basic reasons why the ‘website’ isn’t going to die any time soon.
- You need to go somewhere to get an App!
To get an app for your phone, you need to ‘go’ somewhere to discover it. Quite often, the corporate website is the launch point for direction as to ‘where’ to go retrieve an app.Not too many of us I suspect, start our day browsing the App Store, just looking for new apps to discover. We do our search–looking for a product or service (not an app); ending up at a (web)site; that says, “Here’s our app,” and go from there. The website will need to exist as that jump off point, at a minimum.
Mobile is clearly where tremendous growth exists. Yet zealots need to be cautious (regardless of their preferred domain) to not believe, “Everyone’s doing XYZ.”It is a common statement I hear at events, whether it’s, ‘everyone is using Twitter,’ or ‘everyone has a smartphone,’ or… Sorry. But not everyone gets Twitter, and no, not everyone has a smartphone. Smartphones are still in the minority sales-wise.
- 3G is not everywhere.
Do you have 3G? If you’re west of the Mississippi, east of the West Coast, 3G coverage is spotty. That means the value of your Apps will be just as spotty. It’s still not hard to find millions still using dial-up; it just isn’t discussed much<g>.
So, yes, tech will continue to change. As regards, ‘websites are dead‘ type commentary, No, I don’t believe so. And, neither are fax machines.